Reserve Growth Simulator
How it works
Reserve Protocol earns fees from two product lines: index DTFs (actively managed token baskets, like on-chain ETFs) and yield DTFs (collateralised yield vaults). A fixed share of index fees is used to buy back and burn RSR on the open market; yield DTF staking rewards flow directly to RSR stakers. This simulator runs 10,000 Monte Carlo paths — each independently drawing TVL growth, fee income, P/HR multiple, token burns, and optional supply emissions — and shows you the distribution of likely RSR prices. Set your assumptions in the sidebar and press Run Simulation.
Year 5 · 10000 simulated futures
10,000 paths ranked by final-year price. Bear = bottom quartile, Base = median, Bull = top quartile — each figure below averages ~1,000 paths in that band.
Bear
$0.011085
bottom quartile
Base
$0.049532
32.0× from entry · median
Bull
$0.190735
top quartile
Total TVL · Yr 5
$5.48B
$2.13B · $15.02B
Gross Index Fees · Yr 5
$47.1M
$25.7M · $143.1M
Collateral Yield · Yr 5
$63.4M
$37.5M · $97.6M
RSR Holders Rev · Yr 5
$21.0M
$11.5M · $59.2M
KPI range = bear · bull
Scenario projections
Each year, all 10,000 futures are sorted by price. Bear = the bottom tenth, Base = the middle tenth, Bull = the top tenth — averaged across ~1,000 paths each. Every figure in a row (price, TVL, revenue) comes from the same group, so the numbers always tell a consistent story. Return multiples are from your entry price of $0.001547. EPT = holders revenue ÷ supply.
| Year | Bear price | Base price | Bull price | Return | EPT (base) | Base TVL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $0.001188 | $0.002724 | $0.005271 | 1.8× | $0.0000131 | $311.1M |
| 2 | $0.002649 | $0.007748 | $0.018608 | 5.0× | $0.0000371 | $805.2M |
| 3 | $0.005010 | $0.017236 | $0.050244 | 11.1× | $0.0000911 | $1.79B |
| 4 | $0.007994 | $0.032006 | $0.109889 | 20.7× | $0.000179 | $3.40B |
| 5 | $0.011085 | $0.049532 | $0.190735 | 32.0× | $0.000316 | $5.48B |
Holder's Revenue Composition
Index DTF platform fees + vote locking rewards vs Yield DTF staking rewards · base scenario path
Index DTF · Yr 5
$17.7M
84% of total
Yield DTF · Yr 5
$3.3M
16% of total
Rev yield on TVL
0.38%
holders rev / TVL
TVL & Holders Revenue
Bear / Base / Bull scenario paths through year 5. Solid lines = Total TVL (left axis) · Dashed lines = Holders Revenue (right axis). Both axes share the same dollar scale so the gap between them is the P/HR multiple in action.
Burns, Emissions & Supply
Platform fees buy and burn RSR (reducing supply); locked tokens may be released into circulation (increasing supply). The net effect on circulating supply drives the price uplift or dilution shown below.
Burns are a constant fraction of supply — they don’t grow with TVL. At high P/HR multiples, burns are structurally modest; the protocol creates value through earnings growth, not buybacks. Emissions from locked tokens add dilutionary pressure that partially offsets burns. The net supply trajectory is what matters for price.
Burned in yr 5
253.3M RSR
median, this year only
Circulating supply
69.25B RSR
median at yr 5
Net supply change
+10.71%
vs initial circulating
Net supply price effect
-9.68%
burns minus emissions
Emitted in yr 5
1.53B RSR
from locked pool, this year
Still locked
28.88B RSR
median remaining at yr 5
Circulating supply over time
Distribution of year-5 prices across all simulations
Most outcomes cluster at the low end; the long right tail is the upside. Log scale.