Reserve Growth Simulator
How the model works
RSR’s price is driven by how much revenue the Reserve Protocol earns for its token holders, and how much the market is willing to pay per dollar of that revenue. This simulator models both sides, runs thousands of independent futures from your assumptions, and shows you the full distribution of where RSR could end up — not a single prediction.
Market regime
Each path starts in a bull, neutral, or bear regime based on your sentiment slider. Every year the regime can shift via a Markov chain — bull markets last roughly 2 years on average, bear markets about 1.8. This produces realistic multi-year cycles rather than random noise.
TVL growth
Revenue is a direct function of TVL (Total Value Locked). Reserve has two product lines: Index DTFs (on-chain ETFs, early stage, higher growth) and Yield DTFs (collateralised yield vaults, steadier growth). Each year TVL evolves via geometric Brownian motion with regime-dependent drift and volatility. As TVL grows, drift tapers automatically to prevent unrealistic exponential growth.
There is a configurable annual probability that the protocol discovers product-market fit (PMF) — a one-time event that amplifies TVL growth by 1.5× and unlocks much higher valuation multiples. Without PMF, TVL slowly fades. Each year also carries a regime-dependent collapse risk — a 50–95% drawdown, modeling realistic tail events.
Revenue
Index DTF fees come from a management fee on TVL plus a one-time mint fee on new deposits. A share goes to the platform (used to buy back and burn RSR) and the rest flows to RSR stakers who govern those DTFs. Yield DTF revenue comes from collateral yield, split between platform fees (also burned) and staking rewards paid directly to RSR holders. Holders revenue is the total of all these streams.
Valuation
The model values RSR like a stock using a Price-to-Holders-Revenue (P/HR) multiple, analogous to a P/E ratio. The multiple depends on the current regime and whether PMF has been found — PMF is worth a 4–6× re-rating. A protocol with real traction in a bull market gets roughly 500×; without traction it gets around 80×. The multiple has persistence so high-multiple years tend to cluster.
Burns & supply
Platform fees buy RSR on the open market and burn it permanently, reducing circulating supply. Offsetting burns are token emissions — locked tokens released each year based on a dollar budget. The net effect determines whether supply shrinks or grows over time.
Limitations
Price is derived purely from revenue × multiple — the model does not simulate narrative-driven pumps or macro crypto cycles directly. PMF is binary (on or off), the P/HR multiple is the biggest source of uncertainty, and longer projections compound uncertainty exponentially.
Simulation Results
Based on your assumptions, we simulated 10000 independent paths over 5 years — each with random market conditions, adoption curves, and valuation multiples. In most simulations, RSR is worth $0.009585–$0.308462. There's a 89% chance you at least break even from $0.001514.
Median price at year 5
$0.062676
Worst 10%
$0.001318
90% do better
Below avg
$0.009585
75% do better
Median
$0.062676
middle outcome
Above avg
$0.308462
25% do better
Best 10%
$1.028799
top 10% outcome
What are the odds?
% of the 10000 simulated paths that reach or exceed each return multiple from your entry price of $0.001514.
| Target | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Break even $0.001514 | 23% | 50% | 69% | 82% | 89% |
| 2× $0.003029 | 16% | 41% | 61% | 76% | 85% |
| 5× $0.007572 | 8% | 28% | 49% | 66% | 77% |
| 10× $0.015143 | 5% | 20% | 39% | 57% | 70% |
| 20× $0.030286 | 3% | 13% | 29% | 46% | 61% |
| 50× $0.075716 | < 1% | 7% | 18% | 33% | 47% |
| 100× $0.151431 | < 1% | 3% | 11% | 23% | 36% |
| 1000× $1.514310 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2% | 7% |
Price distribution over time
How RSR price evolves across all simulated paths. The solid line is the median; the darker band covers the middle 50% and the lighter band the middle 80%. Log scale so both downside and upside are visible.
TVL & Holders Revenue
TVL is the total value locked across all DTFs. Holders revenue is all protocol revenue flowing to RSR holders — platform fees (used to buy back and burn RSR), governance rewards, and staking yield.
Total TVL
Holders Revenue 50% index / 50% yield
Burns, Emissions & Supply
Platform fees buy RSR on the open market and burn it permanently. Locked tokens unlock over time. The net effect determines whether circulating supply shrinks or grows.
Net supply change
+4.54%
over 5 years
range -9.80% – -0.10%
Circulating supply
65.39B RSR
median at yr 5
range 62.61B RSR – 68.68B RSR
Burns vs Unlocks per year
Circulating supply over time