Reserve Growth Simulator
How it works
Reserve Protocol earns fees from two product lines: index DTFs (actively managed token baskets, like on-chain ETFs) and yield DTFs (collateralised yield vaults). A fixed share of index fees is used to buy back and burn RSR on the open market; yield DTF staking rewards flow directly to RSR stakers. This simulator runs 10,000 Monte Carlo paths — each independently drawing TVL growth, fee income, P/HR multiple, token burns, and optional supply emissions — and shows you the distribution of likely RSR prices. Set your assumptions in the sidebar and press Run Simulation.
Year 5 outcomes · 10000 simulated paths
Median price at year 5
$0.124423
80% of simulations land between $0.001081 and $4.477213
P10
$0.001081
90% above
P25
$0.014445
75% above
Median
$0.124423
50% above
P75
$0.849701
25% above
P90
$4.477213
10% above
Price distribution over time
Fan shows P10-P90 (80% of simulations) with P25-P75 (middle 50%) shaded darker. Solid line is the median. Logarithmic scale each gridline is a 10x step, so fat tails are visible without compressing the median.
What are the odds?
% of the 10000 simulated paths that reach or exceed each return multiple from your entry price of $0.001462.
| Target | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Break even $0.001462 | 84% | 88% | 89% | 89% | 89% |
| 2× $0.002925 | 69% | 82% | 84% | 85% | 86% |
| 5× $0.007312 | 36% | 68% | 77% | 79% | 80% |
| 10× $0.014624 | 15% | 53% | 67% | 72% | 75% |
| 20× $0.029248 | 5% | 36% | 56% | 64% | 68% |
| 50× $0.073119 | 1% | 17% | 39% | 50% | 57% |
| 100× $0.146238 | < 1% | 8% | 27% | 40% | 48% |
| 1000× $1.462380 | < 1% | < 1% | 4% | 12% | 19% |
Revenue composition
Index DTF platform fees + governance rewards vs Yield DTF staking rewards. Fan shows P10–P90 across all simulated paths — the split between the two streams can shift substantially depending on which product grows faster.
Index DTF revenue $22.5M median · 91% of total
Yield DTF revenue $2.2M median · 9% of total
TVL & Holders Revenue distribution
Cross-sectional fan charts — at each year the shaded bands show where 80% (P10–P90) and 50% (P25–P75) of all 10000 simulated paths land. Log scale reveals collapses and PMF jumps that a single "base path" line would hide.
Total TVL
Holders Revenue
Burns, Emissions & Supply
Platform fees buy and burn RSR (reducing supply); locked tokens may be released into circulation (increasing supply). The net effect on circulating supply drives the price uplift or dilution shown below.
Burns are a constant fraction of supply — they don’t grow with TVL. At high P/HR multiples, burns are structurally modest; the protocol creates value through earnings growth, not buybacks. Emissions from locked tokens add dilutionary pressure that partially offsets burns. The net supply trajectory is what matters for price.
Burned in yr 5
155.7M RSR
median, this year only
Circulating supply
70.56B RSR
median at yr 5
Net supply change
+12.80%
vs initial circulating
Net supply price effect
-11.35%
burns minus emissions
Emitted in yr 5
1.88B RSR
from locked pool, this year
Still locked
35.57B RSR
median remaining at yr 5
Circulating supply over time
Distribution of year-5 prices across all simulations
Most outcomes cluster at the low end; the long right tail is the upside. Log scale.